Review Mariners vs Reds Betting Line and Odds – 4/17/2025

Seattle Mariners

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Seattle Mariners on April 17, 2025, both teams enter the matchup with identical 9-9 records, showcasing an average start to their seasons. This Interleague game marks the third in the series, adding extra weight to the competition after the Mariners claimed victory in yesterday’s game, winning 5-3 against the Reds.

On the mound, Cincinnati is set to start Brady Singer, who boasts an impressive 3-0 record and a solid ERA of 3.18 this season. The advanced projections suggest that he has been somewhat unlucky, indicating potential for improved performance moving forward. Singer projects to pitch approximately 5.6 innings and allow around 2.6 earned runs, with a decent strikeout rate of 6.4 batters. In contrast, Seattle will counter with Emerson Hancock, who has struggled to find his footing with a dire 81.00 ERA and a 0-1 record this season. Hancock’s projections indicate he will pitch about 4.9 innings, allowing around 2.9 earned runs, but with a troubling tendency to give up 5.1 hits per game.

The Reds’ offense, while not stellar, ranks 26th in the league, and they’ll need their best hitter to capitalize on Hancock’s struggles. That hitter has shown recent form, recording a .429 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, the Mariners have been buoyed by their 7th-ranked home run production, highlighting their ability to drive in runs, even with a lower batting average that ranks 26th in MLB.

With the Reds favored at a -130 moneyline and an implied total of 4.45 runs, the matchup could tilt in Cincinnati’s favor, especially given their promising starting pitcher against a faltering Seattle lineup.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all SPs, Emerson Hancock’s fastball spin rate of 2388.1 rpm is in the 80th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Barrel% of Cal Raleigh has significantly improved, with an increase from 15.5% last year to 20.8% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher today) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Brady Singer is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue among all major league parks — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Fraley has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+1.00 Units / 5% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI)