Review Giants vs Dodgers Betting Line and Odds – 7/22/2024

San Francisco Giants

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium on July 22, 2024, for the first game in their National League West series. The Dodgers, currently sporting a 59-41 record, are having a stellar season and boast the best offense in MLB this year. In contrast, the Giants, with a 48-52 record, find themselves struggling to keep up, landing at 15th in offensive rankings.

On the mound, the Dodgers will start right-hander Gavin Stone, while the Giants counter with southpaw Blake Snell. Stone impressed in his last outing on July 19, allowing just one earned run over five innings. Meanwhile, Snell, despite his high 6.31 ERA, delivered a gem in his last start on July 14, pitching seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts.

The Dodgers have an implied win probability of 54%, with the current moneyline set at -130. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a slightly higher win probability of 55%. The Dodgers’ potent lineup, which ranks 1st in both overall offense and home runs, poses a significant threat to Snell, who has struggled with a high flyball rate (39%) and control issues (10.8% BB rate) this season.

Conversely, the Giants’ bullpen is ranked 2nd according to Power Rankings, contrasting with their year-to-date performance, and may help mitigate the damage from their starters. For the Giants, Matt Chapman stands out as their best hitter, though their offense remains average overall.

Adding to the narrative, the Dodgers’ high-walk offense (#2 in MLB) will look to capitalize on Snell’s tendency to issue free passes. Betting markets and THE BAT X projections suggest this could be a close game, but with the Dodgers’ offensive firepower and a promising start from Stone, they appear to hold the upper hand. Expect a competitive matchup but keep an eye on the Dodgers’ ability to exploit Snell’s weaknesses.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Blake Snell has been granted an above-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 4.3 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• LaMonte Wade Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.5) suggests that LaMonte Wade Jr. has experienced some negative variance this year with his 8.2 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Blake Snell – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) grades out as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Chris Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Over the last 14 days, Chris Taylor’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+8.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 68 games (+9.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+530/-950)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 27 games (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)