Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
(-105/-115)+145
On June 22, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field for the third game of their series. In yesterday’s matchup, the Rockies fell to the Diamondbacks by a score of 5-3, continuing their struggles this season with a dismal record of 17-60. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks sit in a more respectable position at 39-37, showcasing a solid offense that ranks 3rd in MLB.
For the Rockies, Antonio Senzatela is expected to take the mound. Despite his potential, he has had a rough year, with a Win/Loss record of 2-10 and an ERA of 6.72. His last outing on June 17 was encouraging, as he pitched 5 innings without allowing any earned runs, although his overall performance this season suggests he may struggle against the powerful Diamondbacks lineup. Senzatela’s low strikeout rate could be a disadvantage against a team that has proven to capitalize on pitching mistakes.
Brandon Pfaadt will be starting for the Diamondbacks. He has been more effective this season, boasting an 8-4 record with an ERA of 5.38. His last start saw him surrender only 2 earned runs over 5 innings. While both pitchers have been inconsistent, Pfaadt’s ability to keep walks down (5.7 BB%) could be critical against a Rockies offense that has struck out more than any other team in MLB.
Given the Rockies’ struggles at the plate, ranking 26th in overall offense and 27th in batting average, they face an uphill battle against a Diamondbacks team that continues to thrive. The projections suggest the Rockies might still find a way to score against Pfaadt, but with their current form, it’s hard to see them overcoming their recent woes.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Brandon Pfaadt’s curveball percentage has jumped by 5% from last year to this one (5.3% to 10.3%) .Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Typically, bats like Ildemaro Vargas who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Antonio Senzatela.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks offense projects for the most runs of all teams on the slate today, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Antonio Senzatela has compiled a 6.5% Swinging Strike% this year, grading out in the 1st percentile.Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
- Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)Brenton Doyle has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Compared to their .324 overall projected rate, the .304 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount weaker than usual.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+7.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 56 games (+15.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 60% ROI)