Review D-Backs vs Cubs Betting Line and Odds – 4/20/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Chicago Cubs

On April 20, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field for the third game of their series. Both teams are enjoying solid seasons so far, with the Cubs sitting at 14-9 and the Diamondbacks at 12-9. In their previous matchup, the Cubs showcased their offensive prowess, defeating the Diamondbacks convincingly.

Jameson Taillon is set to take the mound for Chicago, while Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly. Taillon has had an average season, with a 1-1 record and a concerning ERA of 5.40, although his 4.09 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky and could improve. He projects to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing about 2.0 earned runs, which is commendable. However, he also has a high flyball rate (38%), which could pose issues against a powerful Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 1st in MLB.

Merrill Kelly, on the other hand, is struggling with a 5.57 ERA and a high walk rate (10.9 BB%), making him vulnerable against the Cubs’ potent offense. The Cubs rank 3rd in MLB in both home runs and batting average, and they lead the league in walks drawn. This combination could allow them to capitalize on Kelly’s control issues, giving Chicago a significant advantage.

The Cubs’ bullpen ranks 17th, while the Diamondbacks have a stronger 7th place ranking, suggesting that late-game situations could be pivotal. With a game total set at a low 7.5 runs, it appears that both teams will need to rely on their offenses to provide the necessary firepower. Given the current odds and the Cubs’ offensive strength against a struggling Kelly, Chicago might be poised to deliver another strong performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Merrill Kelly is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue in the league in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Pavin Smith has made big strides with his Barrel%, upping his 14.7% rate last season to 22.6% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jose Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jose Herrera ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Jameson Taillon’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (49.7 vs. 40.5% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected batting order today (.332 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .348 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.95 Units / 26% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 84 away games (+13.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.15 Units / 36% ROI)