Review Cubs vs Cardinals Betting Line and Odds – 8/8/2025

Chicago Cubs

@

St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium on August 8, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Cardinals sit at .500 with a record of 58-58, while the Cubs boast an impressive 66-48, marking them as one of the stronger teams in the league this season. The stakes are high as these rivals kick off their series, with the Cubs aiming to solidify their playoff positioning.

In their last outing, the Cardinals faced the Cubs and were unable to secure a win, continuing their struggle in the latter half of the season. On the mound, St. Louis is set to start right-hander Michael McGreevy, who has had a mixed season so far with a 3-2 record and a 5.08 ERA. Though he ranks as the 61st best starting pitcher according to advanced statistics, his low strikeout rate of 14.1% could be a concern against the Cubs’ strong offense.

Matthew Boyd, projected to start for Chicago, has been a standout with an 11-4 record and an excellent 2.34 ERA, ranking him 33rd among MLB starters. Boyd’s favorable matchup against a Cardinals offense that ranks 19th overall, particularly in terms of power, could tilt the game in the Cubs’ favor. The Cardinals have struggled with home runs this season, ranking 24th, which may play right into Boyd’s hands as a flyball pitcher.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup, though the Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -150. With both teams looking to establish dominance early in the series, this game promises to be an intriguing showdown between a strong Cubs lineup and a Cardinals team striving for consistency.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+110)
  Recording 17.8 outs per GS this year on average, Matthew Boyd ranks in the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Ian Happ has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .317 figure is deflated compared to his .352 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• It may be wise to expect negative regression for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Michael McGreevy will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Masyn Winn is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 8.2% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals makes them the #21 group of hitters in the game this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+9.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 56 of their last 109 games (+14.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Willson Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+6.50 Units / 22% ROI)