Review Cubs vs Cardinals Betting Line and Odds – 8/8/2025

Chicago Cubs

@

St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium on August 8, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Cardinals sit at .500 with a record of 58-58, while the Cubs boast an impressive 66-48, marking them as one of the stronger teams in the league this season. The stakes are high as these rivals kick off their series, with the Cubs aiming to solidify their playoff positioning.

In their last outing, the Cardinals faced the Cubs and were unable to secure a win, continuing their struggle in the latter half of the season. On the mound, St. Louis is set to start right-hander Michael McGreevy, who has had a mixed season so far with a 3-2 record and a 5.08 ERA. Though he ranks as the 61st best starting pitcher according to advanced statistics, his low strikeout rate of 14.1% could be a concern against the Cubs’ strong offense.

Matthew Boyd, projected to start for Chicago, has been a standout with an 11-4 record and an excellent 2.34 ERA, ranking him 33rd among MLB starters. Boyd’s favorable matchup against a Cardinals offense that ranks 19th overall, particularly in terms of power, could tilt the game in the Cubs’ favor. The Cardinals have struggled with home runs this season, ranking 24th, which may play right into Boyd’s hands as a flyball pitcher.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup, though the Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -150. With both teams looking to establish dominance early in the series, this game promises to be an intriguing showdown between a strong Cubs lineup and a Cardinals team striving for consistency.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Recording 17.8 outs per GS this year on average, Matthew Boyd ranks in the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Despite posting a .366 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Carson Kelly has been very fortunate given the .041 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .325.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-165)
  The 3rd-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Considering the 1.34 difference between Michael McGreevy’s 5.31 K/9 and his 6.65 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year in terms of strikeouts and figures to positively regress going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Over the past 7 days, Brendan Donovan’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The 8.1% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals makes them the #21 group of hitters in the game this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+9.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-185)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 56 of their last 109 games (+14.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+180/-235)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+7.35 Units / 49% ROI)