Review Betting Odds and Picks for Royals vs Rockies – 07 July 2024

Kansas City Royals

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies and Kansas City Royals face off in an interleague matchup at Coors Field on July 7, 2024. The Rockies, struggling this season with a dismal 32-57 record, come off a surprising 3-1 victory over the Royals on July 6. On the other hand, the Royals, currently holding a 48-43 record and having an above-average season, are looking to bounce back after their unexpected loss.

The Rockies are slated to start Tanner Gordon, who ranks 272nd among MLB starting pitchers. Gordon’s projections are bleak, with an expected 4.9 innings pitched, 3.2 earned runs, 6.1 hits, and just 2.9 strikeouts. The Rockies’ bullpen, ranked 21st, doesn’t offer much reassurance either.

Brady Singer will take the mound for the Royals. Singer, the 77th-ranked starting pitcher, has been solid this season with a 3.05 ERA. However, his 3.62 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate. Singer’s projections for today’s game are average: 5.6 innings, 2.9 earned runs, 6.3 hits, and 5.6 strikeouts. Despite those metrics, Singer’s ability to limit runs should give Kansas City an edge.

Offensively, both teams are fairly average. The Rockies rank 16th overall, with a notable 13th place in batting average but a poor 23rd in home runs. The Royals are slightly better, ranking 15th overall and 17th in home runs while excelling at stealing bases, ranking 7th. Brenton Doyle has been the standout for Colorado, especially in the last week, hitting .500 with a 1.804 OPS. Bobby Witt Jr. has been even more impressive for Kansas City, batting .522 with a 1.520 OPS over the same period.

The betting odds reflect the expected performances, with the Royals favored at -165 and an implied win probability of 60%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this, giving Kansas City a 57% chance to win. While the Rockies have a current moneyline of +140 and an implied win probability of 40%, the projections suggest a 43% chance of victory. Considering these factors, Kansas City looks like the safer bet to win this game.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-180/+140)
  Brady Singer’s sinker usage has decreased by 12.1% from last year to this one (51.1% to 39%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Adam Frazier’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 87.2-mph average last year has decreased to 84.1-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Kansas City Royals with a 20.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (16.2) may lead us to conclude that Charlie Blackmon has had some very poor luck this year with his 8.8 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 53 games (+14.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.10 Units / 24% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)
  Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 40 games (+13.30 Units / 33% ROI)