Review Betting Odds and Picks for Phillies vs Padres – Saturday, July 12, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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San Diego Padres

On July 12, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Petco Park for the second game of their series. The Padres, currently sitting at 51-43, are having an above-average season, while the Phillies are performing well at 54-40. The stakes are high as both teams are vying for better positioning in the playoff race.

In yesterday’s matchup, the Padres struggled against the Phillies, who continue to showcase their offensive prowess. The Phillies have the 7th best offense in MLB and rank 7th in batting average, while the Padres sit at 23rd in the league offensively. This stark contrast highlights the challenges the Padres face, especially with their limited power, as they rank 27th in home runs.

Yu Darvish is projected to take the mound for San Diego, but his performance this season has been mixed. With a 0-1 record and an ERA of 4.91, he has struggled, though his advanced stats suggest he may be due for better results. Particularly, his xERA of 2.77 indicates he’s been unlucky. However, he will be up against Zack Wheeler, who is having an elite season with a 9-3 record and an impressive ERA of 2.17. Wheeler’s high strikeout rate of 33.6% could pose a significant challenge for the Padres, who rank 3rd in the least strikeouts.

The projections suggest that the Padres may find it tough to score, with a low implied team total of 3.42 runs. Conversely, the Phillies, benefiting from a potent lineup and a solid pitching match-up, are projected for around 4.08 runs, which could contribute to their chances of victory in this important game.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  Zack Wheeler is an extreme flyball pitcher (35% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #8 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 12th-best batter in the game as it relates to his batting average ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-155)
  The Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup profiles as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Yu Darvish must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot since the start of last season: 65.2% of the time, checking in at the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Martin Maldonado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+180/-235)
  Zack Wheeler will hold the platoon advantage over Martin Maldonado in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• The 7.1% Barrel% of the San Diego Padres ranks them as the #28 group of hitters in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 54 games (+19.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Martin Maldonado – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1400/-15000)
  Martin Maldonado has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games at home (+11.50 Units / 115% ROI)