Review Betting Odds and Picks for Padres vs Phillies – Monday, June 30, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Philadelphia Phillies

On June 30, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the San Diego Padres at Citizens Bank Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The stakes are high as the Phillies, with a solid record of 49-35, look to continue their strong season against a Padres team that stands at 45-38. Philadelphia currently ranks 9th in offensive prowess, while San Diego struggles at 23rd, highlighting a significant disparity in their offensive capabilities.

The Phillies are projected to send Zack Wheeler to the mound, who is having an elite season, ranking as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Wheeler has a commendable Win/Loss record of 7-3 and an impressive ERA of 2.55. He faces a Padres offense that ranks as the 3rd least strikeout-prone team, which could complicate Wheeler’s high-strikeout approach. In his last outing, Wheeler showcased his dominance with a complete game shutout, further solidifying his status as a top-tier pitcher.

On the other hand, the Padres will counter with Matt Waldron, who is struggling this season. Waldron’s projections indicate he will pitch around 4.8 innings while allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs, which is concerning given the Padres’ offensive struggles. Their lineup ranks 27th in home runs, making it tough to expect significant run support for Waldron.

With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, expectations lean towards a high-scoring affair. The Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -220, reflecting their stronger overall performance this season. As the series opener, this matchup could set the tone for the games to follow, especially if Philadelphia can capitalize on their offensive advantages and Wheeler’s elite pitching.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Matt Waldron – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Matt Waldron’s 2064-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 12th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Jake Cronenworth has been hot in recent games, cracking 2 HRs in the past week.
  Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jackson Merrill has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Zack Wheeler has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 7.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 10th-best batter in the majors as it relates to his batting average talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-245)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 64 games (+12.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+125/-160)
  Zack Wheeler has hit the Earned Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.50 Units / 75% ROI)