Review Betting Odds and Picks for Padres vs Phillies – Monday, June 30, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the San Diego Padres on June 30, 2025, they come off a solid victory, winning 2-1 against their rivals just a day earlier. The matchup at Citizens Bank Park marks the first game of the series, with both teams looking to gain momentum as the season progresses. The Phillies currently sit at 49-35, enjoying a strong campaign, while the Padres are just above .500 at 45-38, indicating an above-average season.

Zack Wheeler, projected to start for the Phillies, is having an elite year, ranking as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. His impressive 2.55 ERA and a solid 7-3 win-loss record highlight his effectiveness on the mound. Wheeler’s last outing on June 25 saw him dominate, tossing six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. However, he faces a Padres lineup that ranks as the 23rd best in MLB, struggling to produce runs consistently.

On the other side, San Diego will send Matt Waldron to the hill, who has not fared well this season. Waldron is projected to pitch only 4.7 innings and has struggled significantly, with a troubling earned run projection of 3.3. His last start was disastrous, yielding 10 earned runs over four innings.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 9th in MLB, bolstered by their top hitter’s strong performance, including 25 home runs and a 0.923 OPS this season. Conversely, the Padres’ offense ranks 23rd overall and has been unable to find the power needed, sitting 26th in home runs.

With the Phillies as significant favorites, their current moneyline of -250 reflects a strong expectation for victory, suggesting they could capitalize on Waldron’s struggles and continue their winning ways.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+215)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the San Diego Padres.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jake Cronenworth has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 100.8-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.5-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Martin Maldonado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+180/-235)
  Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Zack Wheeler has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 7.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Kyle Schwarber has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 40.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a good deal higher than his 29.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-250)
  The best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-285)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 64 games (+12.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 25 games at home (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)