Review Betting Odds and Picks for Padres vs Guardians – Saturday, July 20, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians are set to host the San Diego Padres on July 20, 2024, in the second game of their interleague series at Progressive Field. The Guardians, currently boasting a 59-37 record, are having a stellar season and look to continue their winning ways after a commanding 7-0 victory over the Padres in the series opener. In contrast, the Padres are sitting at an even 50-50, reflecting a middling season thus far.

On the mound, the Guardians will start Gavin Williams, a right-hander ranked 87th among MLB starting pitchers. Williams has been solid with a 3.77 ERA but appears to have benefited from some good luck, indicated by his higher 5.02 xFIP. He’ll face a Padres lineup that’s 2nd in MLB in team batting average, which could pose a challenge given Williams’s low strikeout rate (14.5%).

The Padres will counter with Dylan Cease, an elite right-hander ranked 15th among starting pitchers. Cease has been somewhat unlucky this season, as his 3.99 ERA overshadows a more promising 3.22 xFIP. He will face a Guardians offense that ranks 12th in MLB but excels in hitting home runs (10th) and avoiding strikeouts (4th). This could neutralize Cease’s strength in generating strikeouts (31.9%).

Both teams have strong bullpens, with Cleveland’s ranking 1st according to advanced-stat Power Rankings and San Diego’s sitting at 12th. This game is expected to be a close contest, with betting markets setting the Guardians’ moneyline at -115 and the Padres’ at -105. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Guardians a slight edge with a 53% win probability.

Offensively, Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez has been a standout, contributing 23 home runs and 79 RBIs with a .843 OPS. Meanwhile, San Diego’s best hitter, Jurickson Profar, boasts a .301 batting average and a .861 OPS.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Dylan Cease has relied on his slider 7.7% more often this year (46.3%) than he did last season (38.6%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Jackson Merrill has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.1% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Diego’s 91.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #24 group of hitters in MLB this year by this standard.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Gavin Williams’s fastball spin rate has spiked 114 rpm this season (2332 rpm) over where it was last year (2218 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Steven Kwan has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 87.5-mph average to last season’s 85.3-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+14.35 Units / 33% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.79 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)