Miami Marlins
New York Mets
(-110/-110)-260
The New York Mets will host the Miami Marlins at Citi Field on August 16, 2024, in the first game of their series. The Mets sit at 62-59, having played relatively average this season, while the Marlins struggle at 45-76, indicating a tough year for their fans. In their most recent outing, the Mets lost a close game to the Athletics, 7-6, while the Marlins fell to the Phillies, 9-5.
Starting for the Mets is Sean Manaea, who is projected to pitch a solid 5.6 innings, allowing around 2.2 earned runs and striking out 6.0 batters on average. Despite facing a Marlins lineup that ranks 29th in MLB offensive power, Manaea’s ability to generate strikeouts and limit walks could be pivotal. His ERA of 3.44 suggests he’s had a decent season, although his 4.31 xFIP indicates he might have had some fortune in his performance thus far.
The Marlins will counter with Roddery Munoz, who has been less effective, with an ERA of 5.67 and a concerning projection of 3.1 earned runs in 4.6 innings. Munoz’s high-flyball tendencies paired with a potent Mets lineup that ranks 4th in home runs (132 this season) could spell trouble for him.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the Mets are strong favorites with a projected win probability of 69%. The projections suggest that they will likely score around 5.43 runs, showcasing their offensive strength. The Mets’ best hitter, Francisco Lindor, has been a crucial factor this season, and with the Marlins’ lack of power and deep struggle, this matchup leans heavily in favor of New York.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+205)Roddery Munoz has been very fortunate when it comes to his ERA this year; his 5.67 figure is deflated compared to his 6.76 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-215/+165)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Xavier Edwards’s true offensive talent to be a .301, providing some evidence that he has had some very good luck this year given the .083 difference between that figure and his actual .384 wOBA.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- Sean Manaea – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Among all SPs, Sean Manaea’s fastball spin rate of 2012 rpm grades out in the 7th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-260)The 4th-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the New York Mets.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-145/+115)The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+9.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+12.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+370/-560)Mark Vientos has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 20 games at home (+19.60 Units / 98% ROI)