Houston Astros
Cleveland Guardians
(-120/+100)-105
On June 7, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will continue their series against the Houston Astros at Progressive Field. Yesterday, the Guardians faced off against the Astros and fell short, losing 4-2, marking a crucial moment as they try to gain ground in the American League standings. The Guardians are currently 33-29, having an above-average season, while the Astros sit at 35-28 with a solid performance thus far.
Cleveland is projected to start Gavin Williams, who has had a respectable season with a 5-3 record and a 3.79 ERA, placing him as the 78th best pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. However, his recent metrics suggest he might be due for a regression, as both his expected ERA and FIP are higher than his actual ERA. He pitched well in his last outing, going seven innings without allowing an earned run, but his projections today paint a concerning picture with an expectation of allowing 2.4 earned runs over 5.8 innings.
On the other side, Hunter Brown is slated to take the mound for Houston. With an impressive 8-3 record and a stellar 1.83 ERA, Brown ranks as the 14th best pitcher in MLB. He also performed admirably in his last start, going six innings with no earned runs. The projections for him are equally promising, forecasting just 2.2 earned runs in 5.7 innings pitched.
Offensively, the Guardians continue to struggle, ranking 24th in the league while the Astros are mid-tier, ranking 13th. This matchup of a strong pitcher against a weaker offense gives Houston an edge, reflected in the betting lines, which slightly favor the Astros at -115. With the low Game Total of 7.0 runs, it’s poised to be a tight contest, giving the Guardians a chance to pull off an upset if Williams can exceed his projections.
Houston Astros Insights
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)In the last week, Jose Altuve’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Houston Astros (19.9 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of all teams on the slate today.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Gavin Williams – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+120)Gavin Williams has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing 8.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Gabriel Arias has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.2-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.1-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Cleveland Guardians – 2H MoneylineThe Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+5.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 away games (+9.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 away games (+8.10 Units / 30% ROI)