Review Betting Odds and Picks for Angels vs Rays – Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays and the Los Angeles Angels prepare for their matchup on April 9, 2025, both teams bring contrasting fortunes into this game. The Angels are riding high after a narrow 4-3 victory against the Rays in their last game, while Tampa Bay struggles with a disappointing 4-6 record this season. With the Rays projected to start Ryan Pepiot and the Angels sending Yusei Kikuchi to the mound, this matchup could prove pivotal for both teams.

Ryan Pepiot, ranked as the 62nd best starting pitcher in MLB, has shown promise despite his 0-1 record. His ERA of 2.45 indicates solid performance, although his 3.92 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some luck thus far. Pepiot is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing about 2.3 earned runs, which bodes well against an Angels lineup that ranks 8th in home runs but is marked by inconsistency in other areas.

Conversely, Yusei Kikuchi, ranked 79th among starting pitchers, also possesses a 0-1 record, but his 4.50 ERA and high FIP of 5.74 indicate that he has not been as effective. Kikuchi’s tendency to allow fly balls could play into the Rays’ hands, especially considering their lackluster power numbers, ranking 28th in home runs.

Although the Rays’ offense is average in terms of batting average and runs scored, they are currently favored at -150. The projections suggest that they are likely to exceed their average implied total of 4.06 runs today. With both teams in urgent need of a win, this game could serve as a turning point for the struggling Rays as they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage against the Angels.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Yusei Kikuchi’s fastball velocity of 95.5 mph is in the 81st percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Mike Trout generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Ryan Pepiot is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #22 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Danny Jansen is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 82 games (+20.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 104 games (+7.10 Units / 6% ROI)
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+490/-850)
  Logan O’Hoppe has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+24.60 Units / 351% ROI)