Review Athletics vs Marlins Bets and Betting Trends – Sunday, May 4, 2025

Athletics

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on May 4, 2025, both teams come off a dramatic clash yesterday, where the Marlins edged out the Athletics 9-6. This matchup is particularly crucial for the Marlins, who sit at 13-19 this season and are struggling to find their footing, while the Athletics have an above-average record of 18-16.

Miami’s Edward Cabrera will take the mound, looking to bounce back from a rough outing on April 28, where he allowed five earned runs over four innings. His current ERA stands at a troubling 7.23, indicating he’s had a tough start to the season. Despite this, projections suggest Cabrera may improve as his xFIP is significantly lower, hinting at some bad luck in his performances.

On the other side, Oakland’s JP Sears has been solid, boasting a 2.94 ERA across six starts. However, his xFIP suggests he might regress, as he has been somewhat fortunate this season. Sears’ low walk rate could play well against a Marlins offense that ranks 6th in the league for least walks drawn, potentially limiting their scoring opportunities.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 15th in overall production but have shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their recent victory. Their best hitter has been on a tear lately, boasting a .667 batting average over the past week with two home runs. Meanwhile, the Athletics’ offense ranks 9th overall and has the 5th best home run total in MLB, which could pose a challenge for Cabrera.

With a game total set at 9.0 runs, the betting markets suggest a close contest, giving the Marlins an implied team total of 4.39 runs. If Cabrera can harness his potential, Miami might just pull off another win against a competitive Athletics squad.

Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  JP Sears’s slider rate has risen by 9.2% from last year to this one (33.8% to 43%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Miguel Andujar has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Athletics bats collectively place 21st- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 92-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Edward Cabrera’s 96.3-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 95th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.1-mph mark last year has fallen off to 82.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Dane Myers hits many of his flyballs to center field (41% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 32 games (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Connor Norby – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Connor Norby has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)