Review Angels vs Cardinals Betting Line and Odds – 3/31/2025

Los Angeles Angels

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St. Louis Cardinals

On March 31, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Los Angeles Angels at Busch Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Cardinals, currently boasting a perfect 3-0 record this season, are coming off a decisive 9-2 victory against the Angels yesterday. Meanwhile, the Angels sit at 2-1, having scraped by with a narrow 3-2 win in their most recent game.

Miles Mikolas is projected to take the mound for St. Louis. While his advanced metrics rank him as the 297th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 in MLB, his average performance could still prove effective against a struggling Angels offense that ranks 26th overall. Mikolas projects to pitch around 5.3 innings today, with an average of 2.4 earned runs, 4.1 strikeouts, and a concerning 5.3 hits allowed. His ability to manage the game will be critical, especially given the Cardinals’ average offensive ranking at 15th in MLB.

The Angels will counter with Tyler Anderson, another pitcher ranked among the worst, who projects for 4.9 innings with 2.4 earned runs and a troubling average of 4.5 hits allowed. The Angels’ offense has struggled significantly, currently sitting at 28th in batting average, which could be a factor in their inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

As the Cardinals are favored with a moneyline of -150 and a high implied team total of 4.35 runs, they appear well-positioned to continue their strong start. With a potent lineup and the backing of a solid home crowd, St. Louis will aim to capitalize on the Angels’ weaknesses and extend their winning streak to four games.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Tyler Anderson will be in a good position being matched up with 6 bats in the projected offense who hit from the other side in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kevin Newman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.242) provides evidence that Kevin Newman has been lucky since the start of last season with his .298 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Jorge Soler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  In today’s matchup, Jorge Soler is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.9% rate (88th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Miles Mikolas has posted a 7% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season, grading out in the 1st percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 89 games (+5.50 Units / 6% ROI)
• Jorge Soler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.30 Units / 33% ROI)