Review Angels vs Athletics Bets and Betting Trends – Sunday, July 21, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Oakland Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels prepare for the third game of their series on July 21, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum, both teams find themselves struggling through challenging seasons. The Athletics hold a record of 39-61, while the Angels are slightly better at 41-57. These American League West rivals are well out of playoff contention, making this game more about pride and development than postseason aspirations.

Oakland’s Joey Estes takes the mound as the projected starter. Despite his struggles this season—boasting a 4-4 Win/Loss record and a 5.29 ERA—advanced metrics suggest he may be due for positive regression. His 4.21 xERA indicates that his underlying performance has been better than his ERA suggests. However, with a Power Ranking placing him 236th among starting pitchers, there’s no denying that Estes has had a rough season. Estes projects to pitch 5.1 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, reflecting a somewhat average outing.

Opposite Estes is Carson Fulmer for the Angels. Fulmer, primarily a bullpen arm who has made 25 relief appearances this season, will start once again. Although his 3.45 ERA seems impressive at a glance, his 4.34 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate and might regress. Fulmer is expected to pitch just 4.3 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs. His projections also include 4.1 strikeouts, indicating below-average effectiveness.

Offensively, neither team has been a powerhouse this season. The Athletics rank 21st in overall offense and an abysmal 28th in team batting average, though they surprisingly rank 4th in home runs. Conversely, the Angels rank 23rd in offense, 22nd in batting average, and an average 17th in home runs, but their 7th place ranking in stolen bases adds a different element to their game.

The bullpens could be a deciding factor in the close contest. While the Athletics’ bullpen is ranked 13th in MLB, offering some reliability, the Angels’ bullpen ranks a dismal 27th, indicating potential late-inning vulnerabilities.

Currently, the Athletics are slightly favored with a moneyline of -135, giving them an implied win probability of 55%. Meanwhile, the Angels sit at +115, translating to a 45% implied win probability. This game’s total is set at 9.0 runs, suggesting the potential for moderate scoring.

Overall, despite their struggles, Oakland has a slight edge heading into this matchup, primarily due to their better bullpen and home-field advantage. With both pitchers potentially regressing to their means, the Athletics could capitalize on this opportunity to secure a win.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Carson Fulmer – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Carson Fulmer has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -18.6 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Brandon Drury has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Taylor Ward has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joey Estes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  With 6 bats who share the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Joey Estes should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Shea Langeliers has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.6-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 91.2-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Oakland Athletics have 6 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Lawrence Butler, Max Schuemann, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Seth Brown, Zack Gelof).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+8.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 away games (+11.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  JJ Bleday has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)