Reds vs Pirates Match Preview and Winning Probability – Wednesday May 21, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Cincinnati Reds will visit PNC Park on May 21, 2025, to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in the third game of their series. Both teams are in the midst of a challenging season, with the Pirates at 16-33, struggling significantly, while the Reds sit at a modest 25-25. In their previous matchup on May 20, the Pirates managed a narrow 1-0 victory, marking a rare highlight in an otherwise bleak season.

On the mound, the Pirates will start Andrew Heaney, a left-handed pitcher with a 2-3 record and a stellar ERA of 3.02. Despite being ranked as the 241st best starting pitcher in MLB, Heaney’s recent performance suggests he may be due for a regression, as evidenced by his 4.36 xFIP, indicating he’s been somewhat fortunate this season. Heaney’s low strikeout rate of 18.2 K% could play to his advantage against a Reds offense that struggles with strikeouts, ranking 3rd in MLB.

Conversely, the Reds will counter with Brady Singer, who sports a 5-2 record and a 5.01 ERA. Singer’s 4.27 xFIP suggests he has faced some bad luck and may improve. However, his tendency to allow fly balls may not be as punishing against a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in home runs this season.

While the Pirates possess a respectable stolen base game, their overall offensive struggles are evident, ranking 29th in both batting average and runs scored. The projections indicate a close contest, with the Pirates having an average implied team total of 3.81 runs and the Reds at 4.19 runs. This matchup presents an opportunity for the Reds to capitalize on their average offensive capabilities against a struggling Pirates squad.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Brady Singer’s 91.6-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 20th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Matt McLain is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Rece Hinds).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Andrew Heaney is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Oneil Cruz has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.3-mph to 100.2-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 46 games (+12.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.65 Units / 56% ROI)
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1500/-50000)
  Adam Frazier has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games at home (+7.00 Units / 117% ROI)