Reds vs Nationals Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Wednesday July 23, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Washington Nationals

On July 23, 2025, the Washington Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds at Nationals Park for the third game of their series. The Nationals are struggling this season, holding a record of 41-61, while the Reds stand at a more respectable 53-50. The stakes may not be high for the Nationals, but they are coming off a strong performance, having won their last game by a score of 6-1 against the Reds.

Washington’s pitching matchup features Mike Soroka, who has had an inconsistent year with a 3-7 record and a 5.10 ERA. Although his ERA suggests struggles, his 3.90 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit unlucky, hinting at potential for improvement. Soroka’s last outing was solid, going 5 innings while allowing just 1 earned run, which could bode well for the Nationals.

Conversely, Cincinnati sends Nick Lodolo to the mound. Lodolo, currently ranked 68th among MLB starters, has a solid record of 7-6 with an impressive 3.33 ERA. In his previous start, he threw 7 innings, giving up 2 earned runs and striking out 7, showcasing his potential to dominate.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 21st in the league, indicating issues at the plate. Their best hitter has been productive recently, with a .333 batting average over the past week and 2 home runs. Meanwhile, the Reds’ offense is more balanced, ranking 15th overall. Given the current projections, the Nationals have an implied total of 4.05 runs, while the Reds project for 4.45 runs.

Despite their struggles, Washington’s recent win could spark some momentum, making this matchup intriguing for bettors. The close odds suggest it could be a competitive game, as bettors weigh both teams’ strengths and weaknesses on the field.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Nick Lodolo’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (93 mph) below where it was last season (94.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Santiago Espinal has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Compared to their .317 overall projected rate, the .306 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Cincinnati Reds projected offense in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup considerably missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Mike Soroka is projected to average 2.12 earned runs in today’s matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  James Wood has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.6-mph average to last year’s 96.6-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.05 Units / 32% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games (+14.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  James Wood has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.20 Units / 23% ROI)