Reds vs Marlins Betting Line and Odds – April 22, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on April 22, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum after a mixed start to the season. The Marlins currently sit at 10-12, while the Reds are slightly better at 11-12, with both teams struggling to find their footing in the National League. In their last matchup on April 21, the Marlins secured a solid 6-3 victory, which could serve as a morale boost as they aim for consecutive wins.

On the mound, Miami will send Edward Cabrera to the hill. Despite his current Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 6.52, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky this season, as his 4.57 xFIP indicates potential for improvement. Cabrera’s projections suggest he will go about 5.2 innings while allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, but he has struggled with walks, averaging 2.3 per game.

Cincinnati counters with Nick Martinez, who has yet to find the win column this season, holding a 0-3 record and a 6.00 ERA. Martinez’s projections are similarly unremarkable, projecting him for 5.5 innings and 2.7 earned runs, but he too has battled control issues, allowing 1.2 walks per outing. Both pitchers are considered average by Power Rankings, which could lead to a battle of attrition on the mound.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 12th overall in MLB, with a strong batting average of .275, which ranks 3rd, while the Reds are positioned 8th in overall offense. However, the Marlins have the advantage in batting average, and with their best hitter performing well lately, they might just edge out the Reds in this matchup. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive contest. With betting lines currently at -110 for both teams, this game promises to be closely contested.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Nick Martinez has gone to his slider 5.3% more often this season (10.5%) than he did last year (5.2%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  TJ Friedl has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 19.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount higher than his 11.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Edward Cabrera’s 96.2-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 94th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Otto Lopez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dane Myers, Matt Mervis, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.60 Units / 33% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.35 Units / 49% ROI)