Reds vs Brewers Preview and Prediction – Saturday August 10th, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

@

Milwaukee Brewers

On August 10, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Cincinnati Reds for the second game of their series at American Family Field. The Brewers are enjoying a strong season with a record of 66-49, placing them in a solid position within the National League Central. In contrast, the Reds are struggling with a record of 56-60, indicating a below-average performance this year.

In their last game on August 9, the Brewers faced the Reds and secured a decisive 8-3 victory, showcasing their offensive prowess. This game will see Tobias Myers take the mound for Milwaukee, a right-handed pitcher whose 3.02 ERA this season reflects solid performance despite being ranked 180th among starting pitchers in MLB. Myers, however, has been fortunate, as indicated by his 4.16 xFIP, suggesting potential regression in future outings. He projects to pitch an average of 4.9 innings today, allowing around 2.4 earned runs.

Nick Martinez will start for Cincinnati, and while he has a decent season with a 3.43 ERA, he has also shown signs of regression with a 4.01 xFIP. Martinez’s ability to limit walks is noteworthy, which could challenge Milwaukee’s high-walk offense ranked 3rd in MLB this year.

The Brewers’ offense ranks 7th overall in the league, with a particularly strong batting average, making them a difficult matchup for Martinez. In contrast, the Reds’ offense sits at 16th, hampered by a poor batting average ranked 27th.

According to projections from the leading MLB projection system, the Brewers are favored with a high implied team total of 4.54 runs, while the Reds sit at an average implied total of 3.96 runs. This matchup should favor the Brewers, especially after their recent win and the overall struggles of the Reds this season.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Recording 14.7 outs per start this year on average, Nick Martinez places him the 13th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.228) suggests that Jake Fraley has had some very good luck this year with his .277 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Positioned 2nd-highest in the game this year, Cincinnati Reds batters as a group have posted a 16.1° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced stat to assess power skills).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Tobias Myers has been lucky this year, notching a 3.02 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.59 — a 1.57 discrepancy.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Gary Sanchez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Milwaukee Brewers hitters as a unit rank near the cellar of MLB this year (28th- overall) as it relates to their 90.4-mph average exit velocity on the top 5% of their highest exit velocity baseballs.
  Explain: Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter’s best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 107 games (+15.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 47 away games (+7.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)
  Tyler Stephenson has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 22 games (+11.25 Units / 51% ROI)