Red Sox vs Yankees Value Bets and Betting Line – 10/01/2025

Boston Red Sox

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New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Brayan Bello’s 94.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1-mph decline from last year’s 95.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Jarren Duran is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected batting order today (.311 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit weaker than their .323 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to the average hurler, Carlos Rodon has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 6.9 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Austin Wells has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 100.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees hitters as a group grade out in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 12% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-210)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 43 games (+20.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+170)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 95 games (+16.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Nick Sogard – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Nick Sogard has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.40 Units / 64% ROI)