Red Sox vs Astros Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Monday August 11, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on August 11, 2025, at Minute Maid Park, both teams are vying for crucial standings in the American League. The Astros currently sit at 66-52, having a solid season, while the Red Sox are closely trailing with a record of 65-54, marking an above-average year for them as well.

In their most recent game, the Astros displayed their resilience against the Red Sox, but ultimately fell short, highlighting the competitive nature of this matchup. Cristian Javier is set to take the mound for Houston, but his season has been inconsistent, ranking as the 237th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Javier’s projections indicate he may struggle, expected to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out just 4.7 batters on average. This could be a significant disadvantage against a potent Red Sox lineup.

On the other hand, Boston’s Garrett Crochet has been exceptional this season, ranking as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB. His projections are quite favorable, projecting him to pitch 6.1 innings with only 2.2 earned runs allowed and 7.3 strikeouts. This gives the Red Sox a substantial edge on the mound, particularly as Javier’s struggles may leave the Astros’ bullpen exposed.

With the Astros boasting the 10th best offense in MLB, fueled by a strong batting average ranking of 2nd, they still face challenges against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 6th overall and features their own strong hitters. Although the Astros are currently seen as underdogs with a moneyline of +150, their offensive prowess could lead to an upset if they can capitalize on Crochet’s occasional vulnerabilities. Expect a tightly contested game as both teams look to assert themselves in the playoff race.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Garrett Crochet’s 95.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.5-mph decrease from last season’s 97.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Romy Gonzalez has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.6-mph average to last season’s 92.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Cristian Javier – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Cristian Javier is expected to wring up 5.2 strikeouts in this outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  In terms of his batting average, Jose Altuve has had some very good luck this year. His .287 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .238.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Houston Astros (19.7 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games at home (+11.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Run Line -1.5 (+105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Run Line in 58 of their last 101 games (+14.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Roman Anthony – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-135/+105)
  Roman Anthony has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+10.50 Units / 52% ROI)