Recommended Player Prop Bets for Pirates vs Nationals – Saturday September 13, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 13, 2025, both teams are looking to turn around disappointing seasons. The Nationals currently sit at 61-86, while the Pirates hold a record of 64-84. With neither team in playoff contention, this matchup is crucial for building momentum heading into the final stretch of the season.

In their last encounter, the Nationals edged out the Pirates with a narrow 6-5 victory, showcasing their ability to capitalize on close games. Andrew Alvarez is projected to take the mound for Washington, and despite being ranked as the 220th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, he boasts an impressive 1.86 ERA this season. However, his 5.36 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate, indicating potential struggles ahead. Alvarez’s high groundball rate (50% GB) could play to his advantage against a Pirates offense that ranks dead last in home runs this season, making it less likely for them to capitalize on his mistakes.

On the other side, Bubba Chandler, projected to start for Pittsburgh, has had a rough outing recently, allowing 9 earned runs in just 3 innings in his last start on September 7. His 7.36 ERA this season is concerning, although his xFIP of 3.99 hints at some bad luck. Chandler’s low walk rate could be a double-edged sword against a Nationals lineup that is patient at the plate, ranking 3rd least in walks in MLB.

With both teams struggling offensively—Washington ranks 23rd and Pittsburgh 30th in overall offense—this game could hinge on which pitcher can minimize damage. The current Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup. Betting markets have set both teams’ moneylines at -110, reflecting the tight nature of this contest. As the Nationals aim to build on their recent success, they hope Alvarez can deliver a strong performance against a struggling Pirates lineup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  With 6 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Bubba Chandler will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Jared Triolo has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  In his previous game started, Andrew Alvarez was firing on all cylinders and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Luis Garcia Jr. has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 75 of their last 132 games (+12.82 Units / 8% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 73 away games (+23.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• Alexander Canario – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Alexander Canario has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.10 Units / 278% ROI)