Recommended Player Prop Bets for Mets vs Padres – Sunday August 25, 2024

New York Mets

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face the New York Mets on August 25, 2024, both teams are looking to improve their playoff positions in the National League. The Padres, currently holding a record of 73-58, are having a strong season, while the Mets sit at 68-62, demonstrating above-average performance. This matchup is particularly significant as it marks the fourth game of the series, with the Mets having taken the last contest decisively, winning 7-1.

In terms of pitching, both teams are sending out left-handers. The Padres are projected to start Martin Perez, who has struggled this season with a 3-5 record and a 4.67 ERA. While his ERA is considered average, his 5.41 xERA suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this year. Conversely, Jose Quintana of the Mets has a 6-9 record and a slightly better ERA of 4.57, but his high FIP of 5.13 indicates potential issues that could arise. Given that both pitchers are not performing at their best, the game could hinge on the offenses.

The Padres possess the 1st best team batting average in MLB, while their offense ranks 7th overall. Their best hitter, Jurickson Profar, has made a significant impact this season with 20 home runs and an OPS of .857. Meanwhile, Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with impressive stats, including 27 home runs and a .830 OPS.

Betting markets view this as a close matchup, with the Padres currently favored at -120. The projections suggest San Diego will score approximately 4.82 runs, while New York is estimated to tally around 4.96 runs. With both teams vying for critical wins, this game promises to be an exciting contest.

New York Mets Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Jose Quintana’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (48.7% vs. 43.6% last year) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Mark Vientos is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Martin Perez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Over his last 3 games started, Martin Perez has seen a significant decline in his fastball spin rate: from 1980 rpm over the whole season to 1927 rpm in recent games.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 60 games (+11.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 81 games (+7.60 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-125/-105)
  Jackson Merrill has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+7.80 Units / 44% ROI)