Recommended Player Prop Bets for Dodgers vs Tigers – Saturday July 13, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Detroit Tigers

On July 13, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Comerica Park for the second game in their interleague series. The Tigers, currently holding a 45-50 record and having lost their last game to the Dodgers 4-3, are in the midst of a below-average season. In contrast, the Dodgers are boasting a 56-39 record and enjoying a great season. The Dodgers clinched the victory last night as underdogs, highlighted by Shohei Ohtani’s consistent performance.

The starting pitchers are Keider Montero for the Tigers and Justin Wrobleski for the Dodgers. Montero, a right-handed pitcher, is ranked #252 in the Power Rankings out of approximately 350 pitchers, positioning him among the worst in MLB. His season stats include a 4.64 ERA and a 1-2 win/loss record, indicating inconsistency. However, his 4.03 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and might improve. Montero’s last start on July 8 was a bright spot, as he pitched six scoreless innings with four strikeouts, three hits, and one walk.

Conversely, Wrobleski, a lefty, also struggles despite being favored today. His single start this season resulted in a 7.20 ERA, but his 4.53 xFIP indicates potential improvement. Wrobleski projects to allow 2.4 earned runs and strike out 3.6 batters over 4.6 innings, which isn’t promising.

Offensively, the Tigers rank poorly, sitting at 25th in overall offense with low rankings in team batting average (24th), home runs (23rd), and stolen bases (27th). Riley Greene, their best hitter, carries a .266 batting average and a .856 OPS. Additionally, Colt Keith has been hot over the past week with a .333 average and a 1.053 OPS.

The Dodgers, however, boast the 1st best offense in MLB, with rankings of 5th in batting average and 3rd in home runs. Shohei Ohtani leads this potent lineup, hitting .312 with a 1.020 OPS and 28 home runs on the season. Ohtani has also been stellar over the past week, hitting .318 with a 1.014 OPS.

The Tigers’ bullpen ranks 13th, while the Dodgers’ bullpen is stronger at 8th. Betting markets favor the Dodgers slightly with a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% chance of winning, while the Tigers are set at +110 with a 46% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects a 55% win probability for the Dodgers, suggesting value in betting on the favorites. The game total is set high at 9.0 runs, reflecting the expectation for a high-scoring affair.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Justin Wrobleski has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 14.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Andy Pages is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Enrique Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Today, Kike Hernandez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39% rate (92nd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Mark Canha – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Mark Canha’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 88-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 78.5-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+100)
  The 5th-weakest projected offense of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Detroit Tigers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 46 away games (+4.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Gio Urshela – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-175/+135)
  Gio Urshela has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+9.05 Units / 151% ROI)