Recommended Player Prop Bets for Braves vs Cardinals – Friday July 11, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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St. Louis Cardinals

On July 11, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Atlanta Braves at Busch Stadium in what marks the first game of their series. The Cardinals are currently sitting at 50-44, showcasing an above-average season, while the Braves, with a record of 40-52, are struggling significantly. In their last outings, the Cardinals secured a convincing 8-1 victory, while the Braves fell short in a close 5-4 loss.

St. Louis will send left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore to the mound, who has been average this season, ranking as the 118th best starting pitcher in MLB. Liberatore’s recent performance was decent, allowing 2 earned runs in 5 innings during his last start on July 5. However, projections suggest he may struggle today, with an expected 3.0 earned runs and allowing 5.7 hits, which could be problematic against a struggling Braves lineup.

On the other side, the Braves will counter with right-hander Grant Holmes, who has been more effective than his record indicates, ranking 83rd among MLB starters. Holmes pitched well in his last appearance, also allowing 2 earned runs over 6 innings. While his ERA stands at a solid 3.44, his xERA of 3.94 and FIP of 4.24 suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate this season.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 14th overall, but they shine in batting average, sitting at 10th in the league. The Braves, ranked 20th in offense, have struggled to generate runs, particularly in crucial situations, which could play a significant role in this matchup. With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, the Cardinals are favored to win, reflected in their -115 moneyline, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize on the Braves’ weaknesses.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Grant Holmes’s high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (64.8% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Sean Murphy is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Atlanta Braves hitters collectively rank among the best in Major League Baseball this year (6th-) in regard to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Among all starting pitchers, Matthew Liberatore’s fastball spin rate of 2106 rpm ranks in the 11th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Nolan Gorman’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 94.4-mph EV last year has fallen to 92.3-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.4% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 72 games (+9.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+16.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 away games (+11.20 Units / 160% ROI)