Read Yankees vs Orioles Picks and Betting Odds – Monday April 28, 2025

New York Yankees

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Baltimore Orioles

On April 28, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the New York Yankees in the opening game of a crucial series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Yankees enter this matchup in strong form, having recently secured a 5-1 victory over the Orioles in their last game on April 27, where the Orioles were blanked 7-0. The Yankees boast a record of 17-11, positioning them well in the American League East, while the Orioles sit at 10-17, struggling to find their footing this season.

Tomoyuki Sugano is projected to take the mound for the Orioles. Despite being ranked 298th among MLB starting pitchers, his ERA of 3.54 suggests he has been fortunate this year, likely due for regression given his 4.79 xFIP. Sugano’s low strikeout rate (8.0 K%) puts him at a disadvantage against a Yankees offense that ranks 1st in MLB. However, Sugano’s control could mitigate some damage against a patient Yankees lineup that leads in walks.

Opposing him will be Will Warren, who has a 1-0 record and a 4.79 ERA, slightly below average, but his 3.68 xFIP indicates he may improve. The projections suggest that Warren will struggle with walks against an Orioles offense that ranks 4th least in walks drawn, potentially giving him an edge.

The Yankees offense is thriving, leading MLB in runs and home runs, while the Orioles rank 21st in overall offensive performance. The Game Total for this matchup is set at a high 9.5 runs, reflecting both teams’ offensive capabilities. Despite the Orioles’ struggles, the current betting lines give them an implied team total of 4.53 runs, hinting at a competitive game.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  With 6 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Will Warren meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Aaron Judge tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Aaron Judge hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+115)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Ramon Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  In the past week’s worth of games, Ramon Urias’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Baltimore Orioles offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 54% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+6.70 Units / 15% ROI)