Read Yankees vs Blue Jays Picks and Betting Odds – Saturday October 04, 2025

New York Yankees

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Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Luis Gil is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #3 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  In comparison to his 90-mph average last year, Ben Rice’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93.2 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Kevin Gausman has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Anthony Santander is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 81 of their last 133 games (+19.84 Units / 11% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 60 games (+21.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 30% ROI)