Read White Sox vs Orioles Picks and Betting Odds – Monday September 02, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Chicago White Sox on September 2, 2024, the stakes are decidedly lopsided. The Orioles are enjoying a strong season, boasting a record of 79-59, while the White Sox are struggling significantly at 31-107. In their most recent outings, the Orioles secured a convincing 6-1 victory over the Colorado Rockies, while the White Sox were shut out 2-0 by the New York Mets.

This matchup presents an intriguing challenge for the White Sox, who will be up against Corbin Burnes, the Orioles’ projected starter. Burnes has been a solid contributor this year with a Win/Loss record of 12-7 and a commendable ERA of 3.23. He has been particularly effective at controlling the game, allowing an average of only 1.9 earned runs per start and striking out 5.8 batters. However, the projections suggest he may face some difficulties today, as he allows a high average of 4.9 hits.

On the other hand, Chris Flexen, projected to start for the White Sox, has had a rough season, with a 2-13 record and an ERA of 5.29. While Flexen’s last start on August 23 was decent, going 6 innings with only 2 earned runs, he has consistently struggled against potent offenses. Given that the Orioles rank 1st in MLB for home runs, this could spell trouble for Flexen.

The leading MLB projection system indicates that the Orioles are massive favorites today, with a projected team total of 5.37 runs compared to the White Sox’s lowly 3.21. Given the disparity in team performance and pitching matchups, the Orioles will look to capitalize on their offensive strength and continue their push for postseason success.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chris Flexen – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Generating 14.6 outs per start this year on average, Chris Flexen falls in the 13th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Corey Julks – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Corey Julks has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.6-mph dropping to 76.3-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Corbin Burnes has relied on his cut-fastball 11.9% less often this season (43.5%) than he did last year (55.4%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (22.5) may lead us to conclude that Gunnar Henderson has been very fortunate this year with his 32.2 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Austin Slater – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Austin Slater has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (-195)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 69 of their last 127 games (+17.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 away games (+5.60 Units / 29% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+9.30 Units / 17% ROI)