Detroit Tigers
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)+110
As the Miami Marlins host the Detroit Tigers on September 13, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the standings. The Tigers, currently sitting at 84-64, are enjoying a strong season, while the Marlins trail at 69-79, struggling to find their footing. This matchup is significant, especially after the Marlins triumphed over the Tigers 8-2 in their last contest, creating momentum they hope to carry into this game.
Miami’s Janson Junk, projected to start, has had a mixed season. Although his 4.48 ERA is average, his 6-3 record suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate. However, he recently had a setback, allowing 6 earned runs in just 4 innings in his last outing. Despite this, the projections indicate he may find some success against a high-strikeout Tigers lineup, which ranks 6th in the league for strikeouts. Junk’s ability to limit walks, projected at 1.1 today, will be crucial.
On the other hand, Detroit’s Charlie Morton has had a tough season as well, with a 5.59 ERA and a 9-10 win-loss record. Morton’s last start was an abbreviated 3-inning appearance where he allowed 3 earned runs, which further underscores his struggles. The projections suggest he might see improvement, yet he still faces a Marlins lineup ranked 20th in overall offensive production this season.
With an average game total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup could be tightly contested. The Marlins’ projected team total of 4.05 runs is slightly below the Tigers’ higher total of 4.45 runs. As both teams aim to build off their recent performances, this game promises to be pivotal in shaping the remainder of their seasons.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Charlie Morton – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Charlie Morton has gone to his sinker 5.4% more often this year (15.3%) than he did last year (9.9%).Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Zach McKinstry has been lucky this year, compiling a .339 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .302 — a .037 deviation.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)In today’s game, Spencer Torkelson is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38% rate (96th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+110)Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)Liam Hicks has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+110)The 2nd-worst projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Miami Marlins.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+110)The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 81 games (+14.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 119 games (+15.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Jakob Marsee has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+6.55 Units / 26% ROI)