Read the Rays vs Giants Prediction and Game Breakdown – August 17th, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

@

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants are set to face the Tampa Bay Rays on August 17, 2025, in the third game of their interleague series at Oracle Park. The Giants, currently sitting at 59-64, are having a below-average season and are not in contention for a playoff spot. In stark contrast, the Rays, with a record of 61-63, are having an average season but are still in the mix for a Wild Card berth.

In their most recent matchup, the Giants fell to the Rays by a narrow margin of 2-1. This loss adds to the Giants’ struggles, as they rank 26th in MLB in both team batting average and home runs, making it difficult for them to generate consistent offense. Logan Webb, projected to start for San Francisco, has been an elite pitcher this season, ranking 8th in MLB Power Rankings. With a solid Win/Loss record of 10-9 and an impressive ERA of 3.34, Webb is expected to pitch around 6.4 innings while allowing just 2.1 earned runs. Despite a recent start where he allowed 4 earned runs, he remains a reliable option.

On the other hand, Ryan Pepiot, projected to start for the Rays, has been above average but not as dominant as Webb, ranking 75th in Power Rankings. Pepiot’s ERA stands at 3.86, and he is projected to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs. However, he has shown some vulnerability, particularly with walks and hits allowed, which could be a factor against a Giants lineup struggling to find their stride.

With the Game Total set low at 7.0 runs, and both teams having low implied team totals, this matchup could hinge on Webb’s ability to stifle the Rays’ average offense while the Giants look to capitalize on any mistakes from Pepiot. As betting markets suggest a close game, the Giants might hold a slight edge if Webb can return to form and their offense can find a way to break through.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Ryan Pepiot’s 2408-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 75th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Everson Pereira – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Everson Pereira has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay ranks as the #29 team in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (14.2% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Logan Webb has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 9.4 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1500/-50000)
  Patrick Bailey has performed at a clip of 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• San Francisco’s 88.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in baseball: #26 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+16.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 109 games (+12.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jung Hoo Lee has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.15 Units / 40% ROI)