San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
(+100/-120)-130
On August 11, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the San Diego Padres at Oracle Park for the first game of their series. Both teams are in the National League West, with the Padres holding a solid 66-52 record this season, while the Giants sit at 59-59, indicating an average year. The Giants’ recent performance has not been stellar, but they will look to capitalize on their home field advantage.
Logan Webb, the Giants’ projected starter, is having an impressive season, ranking as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. He boasts a solid 3.24 ERA and a favorable 2.65 xFIP, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky this year. Webb is expected to pitch around 6.3 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, which could be crucial against a Padres lineup that has struggled to find consistent power, ranking 29th in home runs this season. However, Webb’s high groundball rate may work in his favor, as the Padres have hit just 99 home runs this year.
On the other side, Yu Darvish is projected to start for the Padres. His 6.51 ERA is concerning, especially considering he has only started 6 games this year with a 1-3 record. The projections suggest he will pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs. While Darvish has a decent groundball rate, the Giants offense, despite ranking 24th in MLB, might be able to exploit his weaknesses.
With the Giants favored at -140 on the moneyline, the betting odds imply a team total of 4.01 runs for San Francisco, while the Padres are projected for a low 3.49 runs. Given the disparity in pitching performance, the Giants may have the upper hand in this matchup, making them a team to watch closely as they aim to improve their standing.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Yu Darvish – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Yu Darvish’s 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.3-mph drop off from last season’s 94.1-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 87.9-mph mark last year has fallen off to 85.5-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Gavin Sheets pulls many of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-145)Logan Webb has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 9.4 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Patrick Bailey has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 3.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit lower than his 13.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as an elite pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games at home (+12.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 80 games (+16.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+175/-230)Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 away games (+7.80 Units / 39% ROI)