Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for Giants vs Twins Match Friday, May 9th, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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Minnesota Twins

On May 9, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the San Francisco Giants at Target Field for the first game of their interleague series. The Twins come into this matchup struggling, with a record of 18-20 this season and an offense ranked 19th in MLB. In their last outing, the Twins achieved a rare victory, winning 5-2, while the Giants, boasting a solid 24-14 record, picked up a win against a different opponent with a score of 3-1.

Despite their challenges, the Twins will send Chris Paddack to the mound, who is projected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings today. Paddack has had a tough season thus far, with a 0-3 record and an ERA of 5.57. The advanced stats suggest he has faced some bad luck, as his xERA of 5.01 indicates he could improve moving forward. However, Paddack’s ability to limit walks and his overall strikeout rate remains a concern, with projections showing he may allow 2.7 earned runs today—a number that could keep the Twins in a tight spot.

In contrast, Jordan Hicks of the Giants will take the mound with a record of 1-3 and a troubling ERA of 6.03. While both pitchers have struggled this season, Hicks has shown the potential for improvement with an xFIP of 3.70, suggesting he could turn things around.

The Giants’ offense might not be overwhelming, ranked 15th overall, but they have performed better than the Twins this season. Betting markets have this game evenly matched, with both teams’ moneylines set at -110, reflecting the expectation of a close contest. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, highlighting a potential for a high-scoring affair. This matchup offers intriguing narratives as both teams look to build momentum early in the series.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Jordan Hicks – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Jordan Hicks has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.4 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Heliot Ramos has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Chris Paddack’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (51.7 vs. 42.9% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Willi Castro’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 90.6-mph mark last season has fallen off to 83-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Minnesota’s 11.7° launch angle (a reliable stat to study the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most groundball-inducing in baseball this year: #24 overall.
  Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 57% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+5.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+670/-1400)
  Ryan Jeffers has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+7.90 Units / 113% ROI)