Read the Orioles vs Blue Jays Betting Guide – August 7, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Toronto Blue Jays

On August 7, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre in a pivotal American League East matchup. The Blue Jays, currently with a record of 52-61, are enduring a below-average season, while the Orioles stand at a solid 67-47, marking a strong year for them. This game marks the second in the series, and with both teams vying for crucial wins, the stakes are high.

In their previous outing, the Orioles showcased their offensive prowess, putting pressure on the Blue Jays’ pitching staff. Bowden Francis, projected to start for the Blue Jays, has struggled this season, ranking as the 238th best starting pitcher in MLB. With an ERA of 5.64 and a concerning projection of allowing 3.2 earned runs in 5.4 innings, he faces a daunting task against the Orioles, who boast the 1st best offense in terms of home runs this season.

Trevor Rogers, the Orioles’ starter, also has his challenges, holding a 4.76 ERA. However, he benefits from facing a Blue Jays offense that ranks 27th in home runs and 20th in batting average. This matchup presents a favorable scenario for the Orioles, who are projected to score 5.17 runs based on current odds.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a bright spot for the Blue Jays, performing well over the last week, but the overall offensive inconsistency could hinder their chances. With the Orioles’ power hitters ready to capitalize on Francis’s flyball tendencies, they hold a significant advantage going into this game. The high Game Total of 9.5 runs indicates an expectation of offensive fireworks, especially from the Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With 7 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Trevor Rogers meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Gunnar Henderson has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.4-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 93.4-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-140)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-210/+160)
  Bowden Francis’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (94.2 mph) has been considerably faster than than his seasonal rate (93 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  As it relates to his home runs, Alejandro Kirk has been unlucky this year. His 5.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.2.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 38 games (+20.25 Units / 48% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 59 of their last 113 games (+12.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-135/+105)
  Anthony Santander has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.95 Units / 59% ROI)