Read the Nationals vs Marlins Prediction and Game Breakdown – September 9th, 2025

Washington Nationals

@

Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the Washington Nationals on September 9, 2025, both teams find themselves mired in disappointing seasons, with the Marlins holding a record of 66-78 and the Nationals sitting at 59-84. This matchup marks the second game of the series, and the Marlins will look to bounce back after a tough outing in their last game.

On the mound for Miami, Adam Mazur is projected to start, although he has struggled this season with a Win/Loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 5.74. His advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, with a 4.62 xFIP indicating potential for improvement. However, Mazur’s projections for this game are concerning, as he is expected to pitch only 5.0 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs and 5.4 hits on average.

Mitchell Parker takes the mound for Washington, bringing a 7-15 record and a 5.87 ERA. Like Mazur, Parker’s advanced stats reveal he has faced his share of misfortune this year, with a 5.10 xFIP. His projections indicate he may pitch slightly longer than Mazur, averaging 5.2 innings, but he too is projected to allow 2.8 earned runs while giving up 5.6 hits.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 21st in MLB, with their power numbers particularly weak, sitting 27th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Nationals are even lower in the rankings, at 25th overall. Despite this, Washington’s best hitter has been on a roll, recording 11 hits and 9 runs in the past week.

As the Marlins are favored with a moneyline of -130, the projections suggest they have a solid chance to take this game, especially given the matchup against a struggling Nationals offense. With both teams looking to end their seasons on a high note, this game could be pivotal for Miami as they seek to build momentum.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Out of all starters, Mitchell Parker’s fastball spin rate of 2171 rpm is in the 9th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Daylen Lile is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Riley Adams, Brady House).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Miami Marlins Insights

• Adam Mazur – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Compared to average, Adam Mazur has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -11.1 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Xavier Edwards’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 86.6-mph seasonal average has lowered to 76.5-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-125)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 69 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 71 of their last 127 games (+10.07 Units / 7% ROI)
• Max Acosta – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Max Acosta has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.20 Units / 46% ROI)