Read the Mets vs Red Sox Prediction and Game Breakdown – May 19th, 2025

New York Mets

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Boston Red Sox

On May 19, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the New York Mets at Fenway Park for the first game of their interleague series. The Red Sox have struggled this season with a record of 23-25, while the Mets are enjoying a strong campaign at 29-18. This matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Hunter Dobbins for Boston and Kodai Senga for New York.

Dobbins, ranked 167th among starting pitchers in MLB, has had a mixed season, with a Win/Loss record of 2-1 and a respectable ERA of 3.90. However, projections suggest he may struggle today, averaging just 4.7 innings pitched and allowing 2.5 earned runs. His strikeout rate of 3.4 per game is also concerning, especially against a potent Mets lineup.

Kodai Senga, on the other hand, is having an excellent year, sitting at 52nd in the league with a 4-2 record and an impressive ERA of 1.22. Although his xFIP indicates he may be due for some regression, he still projects to pitch 5.3 innings and allow around 2.7 earned runs. Senga’s ability to strike out 5.7 batters on average adds to the challenges the Red Sox may face at the plate.

Despite their recent struggles, the Red Sox boast a powerful offense, ranked 7th in MLB, which could challenge Senga if they capitalize on any mistakes. The Mets’ offense ranks 6th, and while they have been productive, their performance can be inconsistent.

Betting lines show the Red Sox as underdogs at +120, implying a team total of 4.19 runs. Meanwhile, the Mets are favored at -140 with a higher implied total of 4.81 runs. Given the projections and recent performances, this game has the potential for a high-scoring affair, with a Game Total currently set at 9.0 runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Considering that groundball hitters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Kodai Senga (36.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Brett Baty is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Boston (#3-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-125)
  The 2nd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has made notable gains with his Barrel%, improving his 7.6% rate last year to 14% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Boston’s 91-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the game: #1 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 games (+5.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.60 Units / 41% ROI)