Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
(-110/-110)+145
On June 7, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Seattle Mariners at Angel Stadium for the second game of their series. The Angels sit at 29-33 this season, struggling to find consistency, while the Mariners are having an above-average campaign with a record of 32-30. Seattle’s recent form has been promising, and they aim to build on a strong previous outing.
The Angels are projected to start Jack Kochanowicz, who has had a challenging year with a 3-7 record and a 5.34 ERA. Despite his struggles, Kochanowicz brings a high ground-ball rate of 51%, a potential asset against the Mariners’ power-hitting lineup, which ranks 6th in MLB with 81 home runs this season. However, Kochanowicz’s strikeout numbers are less impressive, averaging just 3.5 strikeouts per outing.
Luis Castillo will take the mound for the Mariners, boasting a more favorable 4-3 record and a stellar 3.03 ERA. Castillo’s profile as a low-strikeout pitcher could work in his favor against the Angels’ high-strikeout offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB in that category. Additionally, Castillo’s fly-ball tendency (36% FB rate) may play into the Angels’ power advantage, given they rank 3rd in home runs as well.
Offensively, the Angels rank 23rd in MLB, struggling to generate consistent runs, while the Mariners stand at 12th with a balanced approach. The projections suggest a high-scoring affair, with a game total set at 8.5 runs. Notably, the Angels are underdogs in this matchup with a moneyline of +135, which does not fully reflect their potential to capitalize on Castillo’s fly-ball tendencies.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Because groundball pitchers hold a big edge over groundball bats, Luis Castillo and his 35% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in today’s matchup facing 2 opposing GB bats.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Cal Raleigh has a ton of pop (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (26.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jack Kochanowicz has a pitch-to-contact profile (25th percentile K%) — great news for Raleigh.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jack Kochanowicz faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Nolan Schanuel has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Logan O’Hoppe, Jo Adell, Mike Trout).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+145)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games (+7.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 away games (+5.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+120/-155)Cal Raleigh has hit the Walks Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+8.65 Units / 56% ROI)