Read the Guardians vs White Sox Prediction and Game Breakdown – July 12th, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on July 12, 2025, both teams are looking to shake off disappointing seasons. The White Sox sit at 32-63, while the Guardians are slightly better at 44-49. In their most recent matchup, the White Sox edged out the Guardians with a 5-4 victory on July 11, which could provide a much-needed boost for a team struggling to find its footing.

Sean Burke is projected to take the mound for the White Sox. He has started 18 games this year, holding a 4-8 record and an average 4.40 ERA. However, his 5.05 xFIP indicates that he may have been somewhat fortunate this season, and he has struggled with consistency, averaging just 4.0 strikeouts and allowing 2.2 walks per game. Conversely, Tanner Bibee will start for the Guardians. Also with 18 starts under his belt, Bibee has a 4.35 ERA and a solid 3.63 xERA suggests he has been a bit unlucky, potentially indicating room for improvement in his performance.

Offensively, both teams have struggled this season. The White Sox rank 30th in MLB for team batting average and 28th for home runs, while the Guardians sit at 28th in batting average and 20th in home runs. The Guardians have shown some promise with their base-running, ranking 10th in stolen bases.

With a Game Total set at an average 8.5 runs, the projections hint at a competitive game, despite the White Sox’s underdog status reflected in their moneyline of +120. With both pitchers facing off, the Guardians might have an edge in this matchup, especially with Bibee’s more favorable statistical outlook.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Tanner Bibee’s 2247-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a notable 114-rpm fall off from last season’s 2361-rpm figure.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Nolan Jones is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Projected catcher Austin Hedges profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Sean Burke is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1500/-50000)
  Andrew Benintendi has performed at a clip of 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+9.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3000)
  Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+12.00 Units / 300% ROI)