Read the Guardians vs White Sox Prediction and Game Breakdown – July 12th, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face off against the Cleveland Guardians on July 12, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of disappointing seasons. The White Sox, with a record of 32-63, are struggling significantly, ranking 30th in MLB offense and 25th in bullpen performance, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Guardians are slightly better at 44-49, but still rank 28th in offense, indicating a lack of firepower.

In their previous matchup, the Guardians managed to secure a win, adding to the White Sox’s woes. Sean Burke, projected to start for Chicago, has had a rough season with a 4-8 record and ranks as the 292nd best starting pitcher in MLB, which places him among the worst in the league. His average projections today suggest he will struggle, likely pitching just 5.0 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out only 4.1 batters.

On the other side, Tanner Bibee, starting for Cleveland, boasts a better profile. Although he has a similar win-loss record of 4-9, he ranks as the 60th best pitcher in MLB and has shown signs of being unlucky this season, with projections suggesting he could perform better moving forward. Bibee is expected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing the same 2.7 earned runs but with a higher strikeout projection of 5.2 batters.

The Guardians have a higher implied team total of 4.60 runs compared to the White Sox’s 3.90, reflecting the disparity in offensive production. With the Guardians’ best hitter recently showcasing a hot streak—hitting .333 with 3 home runs over the last week—Cleveland seems poised to take advantage of Chicago’s struggles. As the game approaches, all eyes will be on whether the Guardians can leverage their advantages and continue their recent success against a faltering White Sox team.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Tanner Bibee’s 2247-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a notable 114-rpm fall off from last season’s 2361-rpm figure.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Nolan Jones is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-150)
  The 4th-worst projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Cleveland Guardians.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Sean Burke is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1500/-50000)
  Andrew Benintendi has performed at a clip of 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+9.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-210)
  Miguel Vargas has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+12.75 Units / 29% ROI)