Read the Giants vs Brewers Prediction and Game Breakdown – August 27th, 2024

San Francisco Giants

@

Milwaukee Brewers

In a pivotal matchup on August 27, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers host the San Francisco Giants at American Family Field. Both teams are looking to bounce back after tough losses, with the Brewers falling to the Oakland Athletics 4-3 and the Giants dropping a close game to the Seattle Mariners by the same score. This National League battle marks the first game of the series and carries weight as the Brewers aim to solidify their playoff positioning.

The Brewers, currently sitting at 75-55, boast the 10th-best offense in MLB, backed by strong performances from their best hitter, Willy Adames. Adames has been a consistent force this season, contributing significantly with 86 RBIs and 23 home runs. Meanwhile, the Giants, with an average 66-66 record, struggle offensively, ranking 15th in batting average and a dismal 30th in stolen bases, indicating issues with both power and speed.

On the mound, Tobias Myers takes the hill for the Brewers. Despite a solid ERA of 2.87, advanced metrics suggest he might be due for some regression. His 4.07 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this season. In contrast, Logan Webb, projected to start for the Giants, stands as the 7th-best pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Webb’s strong performance in his last outing—going 8 innings with just 2 earned runs—demonstrates his capability to dominate.

Betting markets reflect a competitive matchup, with both teams holding a moneyline of -110. However, the projections lean slightly towards the Giants, who are favored despite their average performance this season. The Giants are projected to score 4.43 runs, while the Brewers are expected to tally just 3.60 runs, suggesting that bettors may find value in the Giants as they look to capitalize on the Brewers’ recent struggles at the plate.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Logan Webb’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (44.8 compared to 37.3% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Tyler Fitzgerald is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-115)
  Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Sal Frelick has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.1-mph dropping to 77.6-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 121 games (+11.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 55 of their last 97 games (+8.05 Units / 7% ROI)
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 44 games (+9.55 Units / 18% ROI)