Read the Dodgers vs Orioles Betting Guide – September 7, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 7, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position this season with a record of 66-76, while the Dodgers boast a solid 78-64 record. The Orioles are not contending for a playoff spot and are coming off a narrow victory against the Dodgers, winning 4-3 in their previous matchup. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are looking to bounce back from that loss.

On the mound, the Orioles will send out Tomoyuki Sugano, who has had a rough patch lately, having allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings in his last start on August 31. Sugano’s performance this year has been average, with a 4.41 ERA and a ranking of 241st among MLB starters. He is projected to pitch 5.2 innings today, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs. However, his high expected ERA of 5.57 suggests he may be due for a regression.

Facing him is Clayton Kershaw, who has been one of the league’s more reliable pitchers with a 3.28 ERA and a 9-2 record this season, ranking 62nd among MLB starters. Kershaw’s last outing saw him give up 4 earned runs over 5 innings, but he remains a tough opponent for any lineup. The projections indicate he will pitch 5.1 innings, allowing around 2.3 earned runs.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 17th in MLB while the Dodgers are 3rd, showcasing a significant gap in talent. The Dodgers’ power has been evident, led by their best hitter, who has 46 home runs this season. In contrast, the Orioles have struggled at the plate, ranking 23rd in batting average.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  The Baltimore Orioles have 8 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Michael Conforto has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 95.5-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Dodgers projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .324 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .344 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  In his last game started, Tomoyuki Sugano didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and was only able to tally 1 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.3) provides evidence that Ryan Mountcastle has experienced some negative variance this year with his 9.8 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 87 games (+17.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 64 games (+13.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)