Read Orioles vs Dodgers Picks and Betting Odds – Wednesday August 28, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face off against the Baltimore Orioles on August 28, 2024, both teams are in strong positions within their respective divisions. The Dodgers sit at 78-54, while the Orioles are just behind at 77-56. This matchup is particularly significant, as both teams are having great seasons and are vying for playoff positions.

In their last encounter on August 27, the Dodgers fell to the Orioles by a close score of 3-2, despite being heavy favorites with a closing Moneyline of -190. This loss marked a tough day for the Dodgers, especially given their high expectations and strong offensive ranking as the 3rd best in MLB. The Dodgers will look to bounce back behind the arm of Walker Buehler, who has struggled this season with a 1-4 record and a 6.09 ERA. Although Buehler’s 4.72 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, his recent performances have left much to be desired.

On the other hand, the Orioles will counter with Corbin Burnes, who has been solid with a 12-6 record and a 3.28 ERA. Burnes is coming off a rough start where he allowed 5 earned runs over 6 innings, but he remains a high-groundball pitcher, which could play to his advantage against the Dodgers’ powerful lineup.

Interestingly, while the Dodgers’ projected win probability is slightly higher at 54%, the current moneyline sets both teams at -110, indicating a closely contested game ahead. The projections suggest the Dodgers could score 5.15 runs on average, while the Orioles are projected for 5.04 runs, adding to the anticipation of this interleague showdown.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Corbin Burnes struggled when it came to striking batters out in his last outing and put up 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Colton Cowser is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-110)
  The 3rd-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Walker Buehler has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 9.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Will Smith has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 97.6-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 49 games at home (+6.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 69 of their last 125 games (+20.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+9.75 Units / 17% ROI)