Read Guardians vs Padres Picks and Betting Odds – Monday March 31, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres host the Cleveland Guardians at Petco Park on March 31, 2025, both teams are enjoying solid starts to the season. The Padres currently hold a 4-0 record, showcasing their strong offense, which ranks as the 6th best in MLB and 2nd in team batting average. Meanwhile, the Guardians sit at 2-1, with their offense ranked 17th overall, and it’s been a struggle for them offensively.

In their last matchup, the Padres demonstrated their prowess by delivering a decisive win against the Guardians, building on their impressive season start. Both teams will look to gain momentum in this first game of the series.

On the mound, the Padres are projected to send out Kyle Hart, who, despite ranking 240th among MLB starting pitchers, has been effective in his limited innings, projecting to allow only 2.1 earned runs on average. Hart’s left-handed pitching style could pose challenges for a Guardians lineup that has struggled with consistency. On the other hand, Luis Ortiz, who also ranks among the lower tiers of MLB pitchers, is set to start for the Guardians. His projections indicate he will pitch fewer innings and allow more runs than Hart, further underscoring the matchup in favor of the Padres.

Betting markets indicate a close contest with the Padres currently at -135, suggesting confidence in their strong start and offensive capabilities. The current Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive but potentially low-scoring affair. Given their strong offensive numbers and superior pitching projections, the Padres seem well-positioned to continue their early-season success against the Guardians.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Luis L. Ortiz’s high usage percentage of his fastball (53.9% since the start of last season) is likely harming his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (5.4) implies that Steven Kwan has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his 15.6 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  In today’s matchup, Gabriel Arias is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36% rate (90th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Since the start of last season, Luis Arraez’s 1.6% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 2nd percentile among his peers.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The San Diego Padres have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-130)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 89 games (+18.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+14.85 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+110)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.00 Units / 36% ROI)