Rays vs Twins Best Bets and Expert Picks – Sunday July 06, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays are set to face off on July 6, 2025, at Target Field, with both teams looking to solidify their positions in the American League. The Twins, currently sitting at 43-46, are having a below-average season, but they recently managed to snap a losing streak with a close 6-5 victory over the Rays on July 5. Conversely, the Rays, boasting a record of 48-41, have been performing well overall this season despite the loss in their last outing.

Twins’ pitcher Joe Ryan is projected to take the mound, coming off a strong outing in which he pitched 7 innings and allowed just 1 earned run on July 1. Ryan has been impressive this season, with a Win/Loss record of 8-4 and an ERA of 2.75, ranking him as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system. However, his peripherals suggest he may have been a bit lucky this year, as his 3.56 xFIP indicates potential for regression.

On the other side, Drew Rasmussen will start for the Rays. He has a solid season as well, with a 7-5 record and a 2.78 ERA, ranking him 22nd in MLB. That said, his last start was uninspiring, as he allowed 4 earned runs in just 3 innings of work on June 30.

When it comes to offensive matchups, the Twins rank 20th in overall offense and a dismal 23rd in team batting average, while the Rays are enjoying a much better season at 10th best overall and 3rd in batting average. With the Twins struggling offensively and Ryan’s ability to minimize damage, the odds favor Minnesota slightly in this matchup. The game total is set at a reasonable 8.0 runs, further emphasizing the close nature of this contest. Betting markets have the Twins as slight favorites, set at -130.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Among all SPs, Drew Rasmussen’s fastball spin rate of 2486 rpm grades out in the 90th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme groundball batters like Yandy Diaz are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tampa Bay’s 89.6-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in baseball: #9 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Joe Ryan (41.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in Tampa Bay’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Matt Wallner is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Kody Clemens hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.20 Units / 29% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 away games (+10.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 37% ROI)