Rays vs Red Sox Picks and Betting Odds – 7/11/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on July 11, 2025, both teams come off a tightly contested game just a day prior, where the Red Sox edged out the Rays 4-3. Currently, both teams are having above-average seasons, with Boston sitting at 50-45 and Tampa Bay at 50-44. This American League East matchup carries significant implications as the teams look to gain ground in a competitive division.

The projected starting pitchers for this game are Hunter Dobbins for the Red Sox and Drew Rasmussen for the Rays. Dobbins, who has started 10 games this season, holds a Win/Loss record of 4-1 but is ranked as the 155th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he may struggle against a solid lineup. His last outing on June 20 wasn’t impressive, as he allowed 4 earned runs in just 4 innings. Dobbins projects to pitch an average of 4.8 innings today and is expected to give up 2.3 earned runs, with a concerning 5.1 hits allowed.

On the other hand, Drew Rasmussen appears to be in better form despite an abbreviated outing in his last start on July 6, where he pitched just 2 innings and allowed 1 earned run. With a 7-5 record and an impressive ERA of 2.82, Rasmussen’s projections suggest he’ll allow just 0.8 earned runs today, indicating he could keep the Red Sox batters in check.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 5th in MLB, showcasing a strong lineup that can capitalize on Dobbins’ shortcomings. However, Tampa Bay’s 11th-ranked offense isn’t to be overlooked, especially with their exceptional batting average of .283. As both teams have an implied total of 4.5 runs for this contest, expect another nail-biter as the Red Sox aim to build on their recent victory while the Rays look to rebound. With a well-matched pitching duel and potent offenses on both sides, this game promises to be an exciting showcase of American League East talent.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Joe Boyle has added a change-up to his arsenal this season and has mixed it in 17.8% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-205)
  Jake Mangum is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen ranks as the best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-110)
  Out of every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.9-mph average to last season’s 86.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 33 games (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 94 games (+9.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 67% ROI)