Rays vs Guardians Prediction and Game Breakdown – Monday August 25, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Cleveland Guardians

On August 25, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Progressive Field for the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Guardians sitting at 64-65 and the Rays at 63-67. The Guardians’ recent performance has been particularly disappointing, as they were shut out 5-0 in their last outing, while the Rays managed to secure a 7-2 victory in their most recent game.

Cleveland will send Tanner Bibee to the mound, who currently ranks as the 53rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Bibee has made 25 starts this season with a 9-9 record and a 4.62 ERA, which is considered average. However, his 3.77 xERA suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve moving forward. Bibee projects to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs. His strikeout rate is average at 5.7 strikeouts per game, but he struggles with allowing 5.5 hits and 1.4 walks, which could be a concern against a Rays offense that ranks 15th overall this season.

On the other hand, the Rays will start Ian Seymour, a left-handed pitcher who has had a less favorable season with a 1-0 record and a solid 3.86 ERA. However, his projections indicate he may be underperforming, as he is expected to pitch only 4.6 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs. Seymour’s strikeout projection is below average at 4.0 strikeouts per game, and he also faces challenges with walks and hits allowed.

With the Guardians having the 29th best offense in MLB, they will need to capitalize on any opportunities against Seymour to secure a win. The betting markets indicate a close matchup, with the Guardians currently favored at -120, reflecting a win probability of 52%. The low Game Total of 7.5 runs suggests a potentially defensive battle, making this matchup one to watch for sports bettors looking for value.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Josh Lowe has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 6.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Tanner Bibee’s fastball spin rate has dropped 115 rpm this year (2246 rpm) below where it was last season (2361 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Angel Martinez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Angel Martinez has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph dropping to 80.1-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 107 games (+10.74 Units / 9% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 126 games (+12.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-190/+145)
  Chandler Simpson has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.95 Units / 37% ROI)