Rays vs Cardinals Betting Guide and Expert Picks August 8th, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Busch Stadium on August 8, 2024, in what marks the third game of their interleague series. Both teams are currently having average seasons, with the Cardinals sitting at 59-56 and the Rays slightly behind at 57-56. The stakes are relatively low, but both teams are looking to gain momentum as they aim for a strong finish to the season.

In their last matchup on August 7, the Cardinals secured a solid 5-2 victory over the Rays, showcasing their offensive capabilities. Alec Burleson has been the standout for St. Louis, leading the team with a .278 batting average and 66 RBIs this season. Notably, Tommy Pham has heated up recently, recording a .942 OPS over his last week, which bodes well for the Cardinals’ chances.

On the mound, St. Louis will send Kyle Gibson to the hill. Although he ranks as the 151st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, he has managed a 7-4 record this year with a 4.04 ERA. However, his expected ERA of 4.80 suggests he might have been fortunate thus far. Gibson is projected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, which is slightly concerning given his tendency to allow 5.4 hits and 1.7 walks.

Opposing him will be Shane Baz for Tampa Bay, who has struggled this season with a 0-1 record in just 5 starts, although he has a respectable 3.60 ERA. His projections indicate he will pitch only 4.7 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, which may not be enough to keep the Rays competitive against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 18th overall in offense.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the projections favor the Cardinals to score an average of 4.49 runs, slightly edging out the Rays’ projected total of 4.34 runs. Despite the close odds, analytics suggest the Cardinals hold an advantage, particularly after their recent win.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-145)
  Shane Baz has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 11.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Christopher Morel has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .195 mark is considerably lower than his .232 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Kyle Gibson’s change-up percentage has decreased by 7.9% from last season to this one (17% to 9.1%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 6.6% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #28 team in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games (+4.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 67 of their last 109 games (+21.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 34 games (+8.60 Units / 21% ROI)