Rays vs Athletics Prediction and Game Breakdown – Tuesday August 12, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays logo

Tampa Bay Rays

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Athletics logo

Athletics

-110O/U: 10
(-105/-115)
-110

As the Tampa Bay Rays visit the Oakland Athletics on August 12, 2025, both teams are looking to rebound from their recent performances. The Rays won their last matchup against the Athletics 7-4, continuing a trend of inconsistency for both squads. Currently, the Athletics sit at 53-68, while the Rays are slightly better at 58-62, both struggling to find their footing this season.

Oakland’s Jacob Lopez is set to take the mound, coming off a stellar performance in his last start where he pitched 8 innings, allowing no earned runs while striking out 10 batters. With a 3.59 ERA this season, Lopez ranks as the 76th best starting pitcher in MLB, reflecting his above-average capabilities. However, he faces a tough challenge against Tampa Bay’s Shane Baz, who, despite a higher Power Rankings position at 56th, has been less consistent this year with a 4.92 ERA.

The Athletics’ offense ranks 7th in MLB, showcasing their underlying talent with a strong batting average and home run production. Their best hitter has been particularly hot, boasting a .419 batting average over the last week and hitting 5 home runs. In contrast, the Rays’ offense is ranked 16th, indicating average performance, but their best hitter is also finding success, hitting .458 over the last week.

With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, the betting markets indicate a close contest, reflected in both teams’ moneyline set at -110. The projections suggest that the Athletics could outperform their implied total of 4.75 runs, especially with Lopez’s recent form and the strength of their batting lineup. As they look to even the series, the Athletics will aim to capitalize on their offensive prowess against a struggling Rays pitching staff.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

  • Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
    Shane Baz’s 96.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 91st percentile out of all starting pitchers.
    Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
  • Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
    Extreme groundball hitters like Yandy Diaz tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jacob Lopez.
    Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
  • Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
    According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen grades out as the best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
    Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

  • Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
    Because flyball hitters hold a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Jacob Lopez and his 39.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot today being matched up with 3 opposing GB bats.
    Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
  • Gio Urshela – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
    Shane Baz will have the handedness advantage over Gio Urshela today.
    Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
  • Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
    Today, Luis Urias is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37% rate (95th percentile).
    Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

  • Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
    The Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+6.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
    The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 93 games (+12.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+630/-1200)
    Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)