Rays vs Astros Picks and Betting Odds – 5/29/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Houston Astros

On May 29, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Tampa Bay Rays in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Minute Maid Park. Both teams are coming off wins in their last games, with the Astros defeating the Rays 5-3 yesterday, while the Rays shut out their opponents 5-0. This is the first game in their series, and with both teams hovering around .500, each victory is crucial as they look to establish momentum.

The Astros currently sit at 30-25, enjoying an above-average season, and they are projected to start Ryan Gusto, who has a Win/Loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 4.58. Gusto has struggled with his control, allowing 1.6 walks per game, and his projection suggests he may allow 2.4 earned runs over approximately 4.8 innings today. While his 3.99 SIERA indicates he might be due for better luck, he is still considered one of the weaker starters in the league, ranked 181st.

Contrastingly, the Rays, with a record of 28-27, are considered to be having an average season. They will counter with Shane Baz, who has a solid Win/Loss record of 4-3 and a less favorable ERA of 4.94. However, his xFIP of 4.08 projects him to perform better than his current numbers suggest. Baz’s last outing saw him pitch 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run, showcasing his potential to dominate.

Offensively, the Astros rank 13th in MLB, buoyed by their best hitter’s recent surge—hitting .480 over the past week with 4 home runs. Meanwhile, the Rays’ offense ranks 19th, but they are the league leaders in stolen bases, adding a unique dynamic to the game. With the Astros’ implied team total set at 4.30 runs and the Rays at 4.20, this matchup is expected to be closely contested, making it an enticing option for bettors looking to capitalize on the odds.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Shane Baz’s curveball rate has spiked by 10.8% from last year to this one (20.5% to 31.3%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Chandler Simpson’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 83.4-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 78.5-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-110)
  The 2nd-worst projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Out of all SPs, Ryan Gusto’s fastball spin rate of 2438 rpm ranks in the 85th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Typically, hitters like Victor Caratini who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shane Baz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.0 (-150)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games (+11.92 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+9.40 Units / 30% ROI)
• Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Cam Smith has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 42% ROI)