Rankings and Game Forecast: Rockies vs Brewers Analysis – Sunday September 8, 2024

Colorado Rockies

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on September 8, 2024, they find themselves in a compelling position, riding high with an impressive record of 82-60. The Brewers are currently solidly in playoff contention, showcasing a potent offense that ranks 10th in the league. Meanwhile, the Rockies, at 53-90, have struggled throughout the season and are looking to regain some respectability.

In their last outing, the Brewers faced the Rockies and secured a convincing victory, further highlighting the disparity between the two teams this season. Freddy Peralta, projected to start for Milwaukee, has been a bright spot for the Brewers, currently ranked as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His impressive 3.75 ERA complements a high strikeout rate of 27.3%, making him a challenging matchup for a Rockies lineup that ranks 3rd in the league for strikeouts.

Kyle Freeland will take the mound for Colorado, but his season has been less than stellar, with a 5.30 ERA and a record of 4-7. Although the projections suggest he may perform better than his numbers indicate, facing a high-octane offense like Milwaukee’s will test his mettle. The Brewers’ lineup not only boasts a 5th best team batting average but also ranks 3rd in walks, which could be problematic for Freeland, who typically limits walks.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs, the Brewers are favored heavily with a moneyline of -270, reflecting their strong position against the struggling Rockies. Milwaukee’s offense, especially with players like Jackson Chourio, who has been on a tear recently, could exploit Freeland’s weaknesses and put up significant runs. Expect the Brewers to continue their dominance in this matchup as they look to solidify their playoff positioning.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have 9 hitters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Kyle Freeland in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Cave – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Jake Cave’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 86.8-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 79.7-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Compared to their .320 overall projected rate, the .296 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order in this game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-290)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best out of every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Andruw Monasterio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  When it comes to his home runs, Andruw Monasterio has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 5.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 12.4.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen projects as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 68 games at home (+10.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+130/-170)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 44 away games (+6.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+13.45 Units / 58% ROI)