Rankings and Game Forecast: Pirates vs Guardians Analysis – Sunday September 1, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Cleveland Guardians

On September 1, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Progressive Field for the third game of their series. The Guardians, currently holding a strong 77-59 record, are in solid position for a postseason push, while the Pirates sit at 63-72, facing a challenging season. In their last encounter, the Guardians were shut out by the Pirates, losing 3-0, which adds some extra motivation as they aim to bounce back.

Cleveland is projected to start Alex Cobb, a right-handed pitcher who has had an average season with a 4.35 ERA this year. However, his advanced stats suggest he may be overperforming, as indicated by his 5.04 xFIP, which implies he could regress moving forward. In his last outing on August 14, Cobb pitched well, going six innings with just one earned run. Despite this, he has not been a reliable arm, averaging only 4.7 innings pitched per start this season.

On the other side, the Pirates will counter with Mitch Keller, also a right-handed pitcher, who boasts a respectable 3.84 ERA in 26 starts. Keller’s performance has been more consistent, although he allowed three earned runs in his last start against the Guardians. The projections indicate that both pitchers may struggle against their respective lineups, but Cobb’s low strikeout rate of 9.5 K% could give him an edge against a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in most strikeouts.

Cleveland’s offense, ranked 21st overall, has struggled for much of the season, but their best hitter, Jose Ramirez, has been a bright spot with impressive numbers. Despite the Guardians’ offensive challenges, the projections favor them to score 4.75 runs today, showing confidence in their ability to bounce back from yesterday’s disappointing performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)
  Compared to the average hurler, Mitch Keller has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 5.2 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rowdy Tellez can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The 8.6% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates ranks them as the #9 team in the league this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Alex Cobb – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Alex Cobb will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing hitters in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Steven Kwan has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 16.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly inflated relative to his 6.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (42.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-155)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 132 games (+6.47 Units / 4% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-105/-125)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+11.75 Units / 32% ROI)