Rankings and Game Forecast: Athletics vs Giants Analysis – Saturday May 17, 2025

Athletics

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants face off against the Oakland Athletics on May 17, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their recent performances. The Giants, who won their last matchup by a decisive 9-1 score, currently hold a 26-19 record, showcasing a strong season thus far. In contrast, the Athletics sit at 22-23, putting them in the realm of an average season.

On the mound, the Giants are projected to start Landen Roupp, who ranks as the 77th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Roupp has had a mixed season with a 2-3 record and a 4.95 ERA, but his 3.57 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, which is relatively solid. The Athletics will counter with Luis Severino, who has struggled with a 1-4 record and an average ERA of 4.70, but his xFIP of 4.18 indicates he too might have room for better outcomes.

Offensively, the Giants rank 14th in MLB, with their best hitter showing impressive recent form, batting .550 over the last week. On the other hand, the Athletics rank 11th offensively but have been inconsistent, which could play a significant role in today’s matchup. The projections suggest the Giants will have an implied team total of 4.66 runs, whereas the Athletics are projected for 3.84 runs.

With the Giants’ robust bullpen ranked 1st and the Athletics’ bullpen coming in at 13th, the Giants have the upper hand in overall pitching depth. As they look to build on their recent success, this game presents a critical opportunity for San Francisco to assert dominance in this Interleague series.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Severino has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 8.8% more often this year (48.5%) than he did last season (39.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  JJ Bleday is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Athletics hitters jointly rank near the top of baseball this year (10th-) when assessing their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Landen Roupp’s fastball spin rate of 2008 rpm grades out in the 8th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 87.4-mph mark last season has lowered to 83.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 68% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.80 Units / 35% ROI)